Is India’s inflation actually falling
Source: Ministry of Statistics (MoSPI) · Last updated August 2026
CPI Inflation (July 2026)
4.45%
RBI target
4%
India’s retail inflation (CPI) rose to 4.45% in July 2026, up from 4.38% in June and 3.93% in May. After a period of unusually low inflation in early 2026, prices are now climbing back toward the RBI’s 4% target.
What is CPI inflation?
CPI (Consumer Price Index) measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. When CPI rises, your money buys less than it used to. When it falls, your purchasing power increases.
Recent monthly trend
Why inflation matters to you
- Your money’s value: Higher inflation means your savings buy less
- EMI payments: Banks may raise rates to combat inflation
- Wages: Your salary may not keep up with rising prices
📊 Key insight: Food inflation is a major driver, with the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) at 5.52% in July 2026, well above general CPI. The RBI’s target is 4% with a tolerance band of ±2%.
What’s next
The RBI aims for 4% inflation. With inflation now at 4.45%, slightly above the target, the RBI may hold rates steady rather than cutting them. The Monetary Policy Committee meets every two months to review the situation.
Source
Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), CPI data. Figures reflect the provisional data for July 2026, released on 12 August 2026.